The Spotlight NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread

No your eyes are not deceiving you, this really is the first time ever in which we are bringing you the NFL Picks Against The Spread on a Friday and not on Sunday morning like you’ve grown accustomed to.  Last week we went 7-2 on the week going 5-2 on our weekly seven pack of games and then connecting on both Sunday and Monday night.  We lost last week with the Saints, who look like a team that’s ready to blow the whole thing up at this point, and the Cowboys who once against lost a nail biter on the final seconds of the game.  This week we’re back with 7 more games that you’ll hopefully be able to cash out on, let’s get right into it.

Highlights:

1) Kansas City Cheifs (-3) at San Diego Chargers

You know I hate picking against bad teams coming off of a bye but look out AFC, here come the Kansas City Chiefs and they feel really good about themselves.  This is a team that went into Denver last week, turned Peyton Manning over five times and destroyed the Broncos en route to moving to 4-5 which is just about where every team in the AFC Wildcard race is sitting.  I love Phillip Rivers, but the injuries have really caught up to the Chargers this season and losing Keenan Allen was the one injury that was too much to handle.  I like the Chiefs by a field goal in this game.

2) New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans

That’s right I’m taking another road team by a field goal here and I’m taking my New York Jets.  The only worry I have here is the health of Ryan Fitzpatrick but if he’s cleared to play, and it looks like he will be, the Jets have to find a way to win here.  I know the Texans defense looked out of this world on Monday night, and honestly, they’re in a good position to win their division now but Brian Hoyer is out, which means it’s going to be TJ Yates at quarterback.  I know Yates just won on Monday and has shown flashes but he was the third string quarterback coming into the season and in his career has a less than impressive 4-7 TD-INT ratio.  That doesn’t bode too well for Yates against the NFL’s 4th ranked defense that the Jets have.  The Jets are also coming off of 11 days rest, while the Texans are on a short week.  The Jets bounce back this week and create much needed separation.

3) Chicago Bears (pk) over Denver Broncos

So Peyton Manning is out this week and in comes a relative unknown in Brock Osweiler, and the Bears aren’t even favored at home?  Aside from that it really looks like the Bears are going on a bit of a run here.  I know I mentioned this over the past few weeks but Jay Cutler always gives his team a chance to win and I’m thinking he wins his third in a row this week.  There also may not be a team hotter in the NFL right now than the Bears who walked into St.Louis and destroyed them by 24!  Oh, and did I mention that Bears head coach John Fox was fired by the Broncos last season?  I think it’s safe to say he’ll be a bit motivated.

4) Green Bay Packers (pk) at Minnesota Vikings 

Everyone and their mother is picking the Vikings here and with good reason, the Packers have looked pretty bad over the past three weeks.  That said, I’m going against conventional wisdom and rolling with Aaron Rodgers to have a big bounce back game and get a win when he needs to in order to keep pace in the division.  If losing the Lions at home for the first time since 1991 won’t wake the Packers up then seemingly nothing will.

5) St. Louis Rams (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Ok so Case Keenum is starting this week for the Rams and his 11-8 career TD-INT ratio isn’t lighting the world on fire, but, does anyone remember what happened with the 49ers 2 weeks ago?  If you don’t, that’s why I’m here.  Two weeks ago, the 49ers benched their struggling franchise quarterback Colin Kaepernick after struggling all season and reports came out that his teammates were petitioning for Kaepernick to be benched.  The 49ers replaced him with Blaine Gabbert, the dreadful former quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars, went on to beat the Falcons in Atlanta as his team rallied around him.  Back to this week now and the Rams suddenly find their, once promising, season going down the drain as quarterback Nick Foles ranks dead last in QBR.  Well, now Foles is heading to the bench and again it’s time for the Rams to rally around a backup quarterback.  I think they will.  Also, what have the Ravens done to have any right to be favored by a field goal? This 2-7 team is so done, they lost at home to Jacksonville last week.

6) IF YOU’RE DESPERATE: Detroit Lions (pk) over Oakland Raiders

Not a popular pick here, I know, but I had a hard time finding a 7th game and so I’m going to roll with the Lions here.  Logic would say to pick a Raiders team that, until two weeks ago, was in the drivers seat on the fast track to a playoff spot.  But they lost both of those games over the last two weeks, one to a third string quarterback in Pittsburgh and then got their doors blown off last week by the Vikings.  As a matter of fact, if you look at the Raiders wins they’ve come against one team with more than two wins and that was the Jets, when Geno Smith was starting.  Yes, the Lions also only have 2 wins but their coming off their first win in Lambeau since 1991.  Maybe that was their superbowl but you know Detroit will be up for the game and they have the talent to beat anyone.  I like the Lion by a field goal!

7) LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dallas Cowboys (pk) at Miami Dolphins 

I mean if you didn’t see this one coming then you haven’t been paying attention.  Tony Romo finally returns for the Cowboys after they lost all 7 games in which he didn’t play in.  The Cowboys know that if they have any shot in the NFC East, it’s going to have to start this week against Miami.  The good news for them is that if they win, they’ll be just two out in the division.  The Cowboys are not losing this game, the Dolphins have been inconsistent all year and Ryan Tannehill has digressed to a scary degree (30th in QBR).  It’s been a long time coming, Cowboys fans…the suffering ends this Sunday.

That’s going to do it for me here but I’ll be back with my Sunday night pick against the spread as well as my Monday night pick.  Good luck and let’s make some money.

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