NFL ATS

The Spotlight NFL Week 12 NFL Picks Against The Spread

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Almost had to take a bye week here, but have no fear we are in before the kickoffs here.  If you were unable to check out my thanksgiving picks, you can do so right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hp_U76Nifok , that would be our official youtube channel which I’ll be updating again either later today or tomorrow with a video chronicling my trip to the 2015 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.  So far this week with the Thanksgiving games I’m 2-1, which brings my year long total to 62-24 against the spread.  Vegas can be a cold hearted  bitch but we are getting through this so let’s get into the rest of the picks.

1) Oakland Raiders (-1) at Tennessee Titans

I’ve been against the Raiders much of the way because I feel like they’ve gotten a ton of hype, despite not beating any one .500 or better (other than the Jets but that was the Geno Smith game).  Well, this week they get to play the 2-8 Titans and so I’m back on the Raiders here.  Look the Titans defense is pretty good (ranked number 6 overall) but they haven’t been able to carry the offense to anything save for that game in New Orleans where they won a stunner in overtime.  Honestly though, I could call my boy Adam Tobey and have him rally up the Benai Brith youth troop and we’d drop 30 on the Saints defense too.  The Raiders have been pretty unlucky the past three weeks but that luck will turn around in Tennessee.  I like the Raiders in a pickem.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

If you can make this 3.5 for a little less juice, I’d like it a little more because it reads like a field goal winner either way.  It’s the battle of the oldest quarterback in the league vs. the youngest quarterback in the league.  Despite Matt Hasslebeck being undefeated this season, I’m going to take my chances with youth on the road.  Famous Jameis has arrived folks!  Way sooner than anyone could have predicted, Winston has the Bucs right in the midst of a playoff race.  While Winston has made the play when he’s had to, I can’t give him all the credit.  The Bucs have done it this season lead by a stout defense, lead by Lavonte David and by the number 2 rusher in the NFL, Doug Martin, who has bounced back in a big way this year.  The Bucs really showed me a lot last week when they went into Philly and beat them by four touchdowns, I think their road prowess continues this week.  I like to the Bucs +3

3) Houston Texans (-3) over New Orleans Saints 

Oh boy do I love this pick!  I like it so much it was so close to being my lock of the week.  The Texans are rolling after taking down the undefeated Bengals and my New york Jets and now they get Brian Hoyer back.  While Hoyer likely won’t be battling for a pro bowl slot, he’s the best the Texans have and opposing defenses don’t need Deandre Hopkins to get a better quarterback.  Speaking of defenses, you’ve probably heard all week that the Saints defense will be a lot better because they’ve finally fired Rob Ryan.  Well, they still have the same personnel and the last time I checked, Drew Brees still can’t win on the road.  Don’t expect Brees to get his act together against JJ Watt and that stiff Defense of the Texans.  I lie the Texans by a field goal.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over the Buffalo Bills 

After going on the road and outscoring their opponents 62-16, the Kansas City Chiefs return home winners of four straight to play host to the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills have a good defense but seem to really be struggling to score on the offensive side of the ball.  You mean to tell me a Rex Ryan led team has trouble with the quarterback position.  As a Jets fan, I’m tired of that narrative.  The defense should keep it close, but I like Kansas City, -4.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at Seattle Seahawks

Big Ben makes his first ever appearance at Seattle today and I’m going to go with the road team in this one.  Go ahead a take a peak at the Seahawks schedule.  They really haven’t beaten anyone all season and have been beatable at home.  On the other side of things, the Steelers are coming off a bye so Ben has had an extra week to rest up and get healthy.  You know I don’t choose underdogs that I don’t think can win.  I like the Steelers +3.5

6) IF YOU”RE DESPERATE: Atlanta Falcons (-1) over Minnesota Viking 

I know I know, the Falcons have been awful as of late and continue to find a way to lose.  Actually I haven’t lost too much this season but when I have it’s mostly been with the Jets and the Falcons.  That said, this is my tenth game that I’m picking before the primetime games even start and so it’s a bit of slim pickings.  The Falcons have been a bit too dependent on Devonta Freeman after his fluky hot start and so now that he’s out I expect a lot of Matt Ryan airing it out.  That’s when the Falcons are at their best.  The Vikings were a bit exposed last week against the Packers and I expect a bit of a hangover here.  Falcons will find a way to get it done.

LOCK OF THE WEEK (10-1): New York Giants (pk) at Washington Redskins

Prior to this season, I have never picked the Giants and when I have it’s blown up in my face.  That said, the Giants have been my Lock of the week 3 times this season and I like em again today.  The Redskins are sneaky good at home (4-1) and have their big weapon back in Desean Jackson which makes Kirk Cousins look like a professional quarterback.  That said, the Giants are coming off of a bye and get Prince Amukamura back.  Couple Prince with the resurgence of JPP and the Giants have something on the defensive side of the ball to go along with Eli, who’s looked great.  The Giants will find a way to get it done and put the NFC East to bed before Decemeber.

 

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The Spotlight NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread

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No your eyes are not deceiving you, this really is the first time ever in which we are bringing you the NFL Picks Against The Spread on a Friday and not on Sunday morning like you’ve grown accustomed to.  Last week we went 7-2 on the week going 5-2 on our weekly seven pack of games and then connecting on both Sunday and Monday night.  We lost last week with the Saints, who look like a team that’s ready to blow the whole thing up at this point, and the Cowboys who once against lost a nail biter on the final seconds of the game.  This week we’re back with 7 more games that you’ll hopefully be able to cash out on, let’s get right into it.

Highlights:

1) Kansas City Cheifs (-3) at San Diego Chargers

You know I hate picking against bad teams coming off of a bye but look out AFC, here come the Kansas City Chiefs and they feel really good about themselves.  This is a team that went into Denver last week, turned Peyton Manning over five times and destroyed the Broncos en route to moving to 4-5 which is just about where every team in the AFC Wildcard race is sitting.  I love Phillip Rivers, but the injuries have really caught up to the Chargers this season and losing Keenan Allen was the one injury that was too much to handle.  I like the Chiefs by a field goal in this game.

2) New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans

That’s right I’m taking another road team by a field goal here and I’m taking my New York Jets.  The only worry I have here is the health of Ryan Fitzpatrick but if he’s cleared to play, and it looks like he will be, the Jets have to find a way to win here.  I know the Texans defense looked out of this world on Monday night, and honestly, they’re in a good position to win their division now but Brian Hoyer is out, which means it’s going to be TJ Yates at quarterback.  I know Yates just won on Monday and has shown flashes but he was the third string quarterback coming into the season and in his career has a less than impressive 4-7 TD-INT ratio.  That doesn’t bode too well for Yates against the NFL’s 4th ranked defense that the Jets have.  The Jets are also coming off of 11 days rest, while the Texans are on a short week.  The Jets bounce back this week and create much needed separation.

3) Chicago Bears (pk) over Denver Broncos

So Peyton Manning is out this week and in comes a relative unknown in Brock Osweiler, and the Bears aren’t even favored at home?  Aside from that it really looks like the Bears are going on a bit of a run here.  I know I mentioned this over the past few weeks but Jay Cutler always gives his team a chance to win and I’m thinking he wins his third in a row this week.  There also may not be a team hotter in the NFL right now than the Bears who walked into St.Louis and destroyed them by 24!  Oh, and did I mention that Bears head coach John Fox was fired by the Broncos last season?  I think it’s safe to say he’ll be a bit motivated.

4) Green Bay Packers (pk) at Minnesota Vikings 

Everyone and their mother is picking the Vikings here and with good reason, the Packers have looked pretty bad over the past three weeks.  That said, I’m going against conventional wisdom and rolling with Aaron Rodgers to have a big bounce back game and get a win when he needs to in order to keep pace in the division.  If losing the Lions at home for the first time since 1991 won’t wake the Packers up then seemingly nothing will.

5) St. Louis Rams (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Ok so Case Keenum is starting this week for the Rams and his 11-8 career TD-INT ratio isn’t lighting the world on fire, but, does anyone remember what happened with the 49ers 2 weeks ago?  If you don’t, that’s why I’m here.  Two weeks ago, the 49ers benched their struggling franchise quarterback Colin Kaepernick after struggling all season and reports came out that his teammates were petitioning for Kaepernick to be benched.  The 49ers replaced him with Blaine Gabbert, the dreadful former quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars, went on to beat the Falcons in Atlanta as his team rallied around him.  Back to this week now and the Rams suddenly find their, once promising, season going down the drain as quarterback Nick Foles ranks dead last in QBR.  Well, now Foles is heading to the bench and again it’s time for the Rams to rally around a backup quarterback.  I think they will.  Also, what have the Ravens done to have any right to be favored by a field goal? This 2-7 team is so done, they lost at home to Jacksonville last week.

6) IF YOU’RE DESPERATE: Detroit Lions (pk) over Oakland Raiders

Not a popular pick here, I know, but I had a hard time finding a 7th game and so I’m going to roll with the Lions here.  Logic would say to pick a Raiders team that, until two weeks ago, was in the drivers seat on the fast track to a playoff spot.  But they lost both of those games over the last two weeks, one to a third string quarterback in Pittsburgh and then got their doors blown off last week by the Vikings.  As a matter of fact, if you look at the Raiders wins they’ve come against one team with more than two wins and that was the Jets, when Geno Smith was starting.  Yes, the Lions also only have 2 wins but their coming off their first win in Lambeau since 1991.  Maybe that was their superbowl but you know Detroit will be up for the game and they have the talent to beat anyone.  I like the Lion by a field goal!

7) LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dallas Cowboys (pk) at Miami Dolphins 

I mean if you didn’t see this one coming then you haven’t been paying attention.  Tony Romo finally returns for the Cowboys after they lost all 7 games in which he didn’t play in.  The Cowboys know that if they have any shot in the NFC East, it’s going to have to start this week against Miami.  The good news for them is that if they win, they’ll be just two out in the division.  The Cowboys are not losing this game, the Dolphins have been inconsistent all year and Ryan Tannehill has digressed to a scary degree (30th in QBR).  It’s been a long time coming, Cowboys fans…the suffering ends this Sunday.

That’s going to do it for me here but I’ll be back with my Sunday night pick against the spread as well as my Monday night pick.  Good luck and let’s make some money.

The Spotlight NFL Picks Against The Spread- Monday Night Football- Jets At Colts

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Hello everyone,  first off I just wanted to apologize for being off the grid these past few days.  It was actually my three year anniversary with my girlfriend and so I was away for the weekend.  We did a variety of different activities from checking out a lobster bake at Penthouse 808 in Long Island City to boat riding at Central Park to checking out Matilda on Broadway.  They were all a lot of fun and you can expect reviews of each one of those in the coming weeks.  Due to this,  I was unable to give you guys the usual Picks entry you’ve come to expect but will return with that this Friday.  However, what I was able to do was post some of my picks over on twitter (@TommyOnTheSpot) throughout the week.  I hate missing more than one but I missed two this week, including our lock of the week- the Detroit Lions who got manhandled by the Minnesota Vikings.  It looked like Adrian Peterson was able to knock off some of that rust from week 1 and Matt Stafford just doesn’t look like himself.  I also missed badly on the Titans (-1) over the Browns.  This was a game that I wouldn’t have touched had Josh McCown been starting for the Browns but I got suckered in when I heard Manziel was starting.  While I’m not a believer in Johnny Football,  I should have realized a rookie quarterback on the road in Cleveland so early in the season wasn’t going to be able to do much.  Like I said in my preseason predictions, there will be growing pains with Marcus Mariota.

The good new is that I absolutely cleaned up with the rest of my 1pm picks yesterday connecting on the Patriots (-1), the Cardinals (-2), the Steelers (6), the Falcons (+2) and the Bengals (-3).  I then ended then night out strong by picking the Packers (-3.5).  This brings our total over here this season up to 11-3 with our NFL Picks Against The Spread and we’ll attempt to keep the hot hand going with Monday Night Football tonight.  Remember with the Sunday night, Monday night and Thursday night games, I’m going to give you guys a prediction because they are the primetime games but I’m not including them in my picks of the week.  That said,  I do think the primetime games are a little bit easier to pick sometimes due to the fact that they allow you to focus in on one key game.  With that said,  let’s get into today’s game.

In the interest of full disclosure,  I’m a big fan of the New York Jets, I like them more than any team in any sport and have rooted for them my entire life.  You will very rarely see me pick against them as one of the picks I choose to place action on but since they’re playing on Monday Night, I’ll will remain as impartial as I can be when I pick the Jets (+7) tonight.  I’m not saying the 1-0 Jets are going to beat the 0-1 Colts in Indy but I expect them to keep it close.  The number one thing I look at here is the injuries that the Colts have. It remains unclear if Robert Mathis will make his season debut and also remains unclear if TY Hilton is going to play.  If Hilton is out this means that Andrew Luck is left with unproven Donte Moncreif and Andre Johnson, who he really didn’t seem to click with during Week 1.  Furthermore, I’m already pretty unimpressed with the Colts on the defensive side of the ball and now Cornerbacks, Greg Toler and Darius Butler have both been ruled out as well.  I’d look for Eric Decker to have a big game tonight and for Ryan Fitzpatrick to exploit the weaknesses that Indy has at the cornerback position tonight.

Thus, my pick is The New York Jets (+7),  I expect a close game and don’t be shocked to see the Jets win the game outright.  Until next time who were some of your winners and losers from last night?

The Spotlight Picks Against The Spread- Thursday Night Football- Broncos At Chiefs

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Week 2 in the NFL season will kick off in a bit over an hour with a clash of AFC West teams as Peyton Manning will lead the Denver Broncos into Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

This reads like a tale of two teams who fans feel completely different about this season.  Everywhere you look you see people jumping on the Chiefs bandwagon.  It seems like the only thing that Andy Reid’s team was missing last season was a wide receiver.  They have an elite running back in Jamaal Charles, a quarterback who has won in the playoffs, a rising tight end in Travis Kelce and a stud defense.  Well enter Jeremy Maclin and the Chiefs came out firing in Houston with seemingly all pieces in place.

On the other side of the dime you have the Denver Broncos, the four time division champions are seemingly finished accoridngly to the public.  Peyton Manning hasn’t looked good since last season and last week he averaged under 5 yards per pass.  Denver also got destroyed in the process…what’s that?  Denver won last week?  They beat the Baltimore Ravens?!?! You’d never that the Denver Broncos are currently 1-0 based on everything you’ve heard all week.

So what do we do tonight?   I’ll admit it, I cringe every time I see Peyton Manning go down and go down hard. It’s hard to watch knowing his injuries and, let’s face it, his age.  The Chiefs will be coming at him all night long but this year it’s a different Denver Bronco team.  After three years of the Broncos being carried by Peyton Manning, he is now being carried by them.  The Broncos have a great defense and have a good running game now that the Montee Ball experience is over.  I know Arrowhead will be loud tonight and I know the Chiefs are the consensus pick but I’m not willing to give up on Peyton Manning just yet.  This game reads more like a pickem and if I’m getting points with Peyton Manning I’ll take them gladly.

The Pick:  Broncos (+3, if you can wait it should drop to +3.5,  though don’t be too surprised if the Broncos win outright)