The Spotlight NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread

No your eyes are not deceiving you, this really is the first time ever in which we are bringing you the NFL Picks Against The Spread on a Friday and not on Sunday morning like you’ve grown accustomed to.  Last week we went 7-2 on the week going 5-2 on our weekly seven pack of games and then connecting on both Sunday and Monday night.  We lost last week with the Saints, who look like a team that’s ready to blow the whole thing up at this point, and the Cowboys who once against lost a nail biter on the final seconds of the game.  This week we’re back with 7 more games that you’ll hopefully be able to cash out on, let’s get right into it.

Highlights:

1) Kansas City Cheifs (-3) at San Diego Chargers

You know I hate picking against bad teams coming off of a bye but look out AFC, here come the Kansas City Chiefs and they feel really good about themselves.  This is a team that went into Denver last week, turned Peyton Manning over five times and destroyed the Broncos en route to moving to 4-5 which is just about where every team in the AFC Wildcard race is sitting.  I love Phillip Rivers, but the injuries have really caught up to the Chargers this season and losing Keenan Allen was the one injury that was too much to handle.  I like the Chiefs by a field goal in this game.

2) New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans

That’s right I’m taking another road team by a field goal here and I’m taking my New York Jets.  The only worry I have here is the health of Ryan Fitzpatrick but if he’s cleared to play, and it looks like he will be, the Jets have to find a way to win here.  I know the Texans defense looked out of this world on Monday night, and honestly, they’re in a good position to win their division now but Brian Hoyer is out, which means it’s going to be TJ Yates at quarterback.  I know Yates just won on Monday and has shown flashes but he was the third string quarterback coming into the season and in his career has a less than impressive 4-7 TD-INT ratio.  That doesn’t bode too well for Yates against the NFL’s 4th ranked defense that the Jets have.  The Jets are also coming off of 11 days rest, while the Texans are on a short week.  The Jets bounce back this week and create much needed separation.

3) Chicago Bears (pk) over Denver Broncos

So Peyton Manning is out this week and in comes a relative unknown in Brock Osweiler, and the Bears aren’t even favored at home?  Aside from that it really looks like the Bears are going on a bit of a run here.  I know I mentioned this over the past few weeks but Jay Cutler always gives his team a chance to win and I’m thinking he wins his third in a row this week.  There also may not be a team hotter in the NFL right now than the Bears who walked into St.Louis and destroyed them by 24!  Oh, and did I mention that Bears head coach John Fox was fired by the Broncos last season?  I think it’s safe to say he’ll be a bit motivated.

4) Green Bay Packers (pk) at Minnesota Vikings 

Everyone and their mother is picking the Vikings here and with good reason, the Packers have looked pretty bad over the past three weeks.  That said, I’m going against conventional wisdom and rolling with Aaron Rodgers to have a big bounce back game and get a win when he needs to in order to keep pace in the division.  If losing the Lions at home for the first time since 1991 won’t wake the Packers up then seemingly nothing will.

5) St. Louis Rams (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Ok so Case Keenum is starting this week for the Rams and his 11-8 career TD-INT ratio isn’t lighting the world on fire, but, does anyone remember what happened with the 49ers 2 weeks ago?  If you don’t, that’s why I’m here.  Two weeks ago, the 49ers benched their struggling franchise quarterback Colin Kaepernick after struggling all season and reports came out that his teammates were petitioning for Kaepernick to be benched.  The 49ers replaced him with Blaine Gabbert, the dreadful former quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars, went on to beat the Falcons in Atlanta as his team rallied around him.  Back to this week now and the Rams suddenly find their, once promising, season going down the drain as quarterback Nick Foles ranks dead last in QBR.  Well, now Foles is heading to the bench and again it’s time for the Rams to rally around a backup quarterback.  I think they will.  Also, what have the Ravens done to have any right to be favored by a field goal? This 2-7 team is so done, they lost at home to Jacksonville last week.

6) IF YOU’RE DESPERATE: Detroit Lions (pk) over Oakland Raiders

Not a popular pick here, I know, but I had a hard time finding a 7th game and so I’m going to roll with the Lions here.  Logic would say to pick a Raiders team that, until two weeks ago, was in the drivers seat on the fast track to a playoff spot.  But they lost both of those games over the last two weeks, one to a third string quarterback in Pittsburgh and then got their doors blown off last week by the Vikings.  As a matter of fact, if you look at the Raiders wins they’ve come against one team with more than two wins and that was the Jets, when Geno Smith was starting.  Yes, the Lions also only have 2 wins but their coming off their first win in Lambeau since 1991.  Maybe that was their superbowl but you know Detroit will be up for the game and they have the talent to beat anyone.  I like the Lion by a field goal!

7) LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dallas Cowboys (pk) at Miami Dolphins 

I mean if you didn’t see this one coming then you haven’t been paying attention.  Tony Romo finally returns for the Cowboys after they lost all 7 games in which he didn’t play in.  The Cowboys know that if they have any shot in the NFC East, it’s going to have to start this week against Miami.  The good news for them is that if they win, they’ll be just two out in the division.  The Cowboys are not losing this game, the Dolphins have been inconsistent all year and Ryan Tannehill has digressed to a scary degree (30th in QBR).  It’s been a long time coming, Cowboys fans…the suffering ends this Sunday.

That’s going to do it for me here but I’ll be back with my Sunday night pick against the spread as well as my Monday night pick.  Good luck and let’s make some money.

The Spotlight Picks Against The Spread for the NFL Week 7

Top of the morning to you everyone…well I guess really it’s good evening to most of my readers and followers but I’m coming to you live from the United Arab Emirates.  Ever since I met my girlfriend, over 3 years ago, she has been talking about going to Dubai and so this year I finally made it happen.  With Dubai being a solid 8 hours ahead of us New Yorkers, the time change has really been killing us.  We sleep when we can for a few hours here and there but we usually aren’t tired until around 6 or 7 AM and then have trouble getting up any earlier than 3 pm…I say this but it really is only our second night here so hopefully it’ll get better.  In any event, tonight I fell asleep aroun 3 Am only to wake up a few hours later a bit after 5.  After tossing and turning for almost an hour, I threw in the towel and decided to come provide you guys with  the picks you’ve come to depend on each week on thedailyspotlight.com.

One thing that’s really interesting is that the NFL really isn’t much of an entity at all here in the middle east.  There is much more of an emphasis on Soccer and Rugby (and WWE for that matter but that’s another blog for another day) then the sports we follow in the states.  This is to the point that until moments ago I hadn’t even known the Royals won the pennant and that was only because I flipped over to espn to find the updated NFL injury report.  Now that I do have that report, what a segue way this is, let’s finally get into the reason you’re all here your top NFL picks against the spread.

Now it took until week 6 but we finally did hit double digits in losses on the year when I took two losses with both the Ravens ( who we can officially right off as a bad football team for 2015) and the Arizona Cardinals (who I can’t lie really surprised me in a bad loss last week to a number three quarterback).  Regardless we are still rolling after a 5-2 week 6 bringing our total up to 34-11 on the year.  I’ll be honest being on vacation, I considered taking this week off but my goal is to bring you winners every week and so I’m going to try to do just that yet again.  This is a tough week so proceed with caution but let’s hope Dubai brings us luck.  The picks for Week 7 in the NFL…

Cleveland Browns (+7) over The St. Louis Rams

On a tough week this game immediately jumped right out at me.  The Rams play hard for Jeff Fisher, no doubt, they are usually in ever game right down to the finish and often play up for division games.  But this isn’t a division game…and I can’t recall the last time the the Rams blew anyone out.  On the other side of things you have a Browns team that despite a 2-4 record has played every game close and almost beat the undefeated Broncos last week.  Josh McCown is playing at an elite level and always gives his team a chance.  Remember, I don’t picks underdogs that I think have no shot to win.  Don’t be surprised if the Browns do just that.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over Oakland Raiders

Talk about a team that shouldn’t be 2-4, how about the San Diego Chargers who have lost some real heartbreakers.  Phillip Rivers proved last week that on any given Sunday (great movie), he can compete with any quarterback in the league, even Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, in what was arugably the best game of the 2015 season.  Now the Chargers have the Raiders coming to town with the season on the line and I like their chances.  Only a field goal, roll with it!

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over New York Giants

I was finally starting to believe in the New York Giants last week and then…bad Eli showed up!  Scratch that! Terrible Eli showed up.  Now the Cwobys come to town off their bye and it’s officially the Matt Cassell era in Dallas.  The Cowboys now know that Dez Bryant is probably one more week away and if they can just tread water until then the division is right there for the taking.  Will Matt Cassell fair better than Brandon Weeden?  Well he can’t fair much worse.  When a player has lost that many starts in a row, that losing stigma has to project in his confidence and in his leadership.  Cassell won’t fight Tony Romo for his starting job, but he’ll do enough to hang onto it until he’s ready.  Cowboys will rally around their new QB and may steal one at Metlife.  (Note: This was my final pick of the week. I was prepared to go Bills but they just have too many injuries so the Cowboys were my backup pick, take that for what it’s worth)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over Washington Redskins

In a tough week, a lot of my picks here are being determined by that extra half a point.  The Redskins looked awful last week against the Jets in a game I watched all 60 minutes of.  The Jets are ight years better than the Bucs but the Bucs have some talent, in particular, on the offensive side of the ball.  Coming off their be this gives Mike Evans and Doug Martin a chance to get healthy and Lovie Smith a chance to get Jameis Winston two weeks of preparation.  Kirk Cousins just isn’t the answer at quarterback for the Redskins and if this becomes a close game, I’m going the other way almost every time.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is officially out on Sunday which means that Landry Jones will be in at quarterback and the reason this line is so low is because Landry Jones looked pretty good in a shocking win over the Cardinals last week.  Don’t get me wrong, Landry Jones gives the Steelers the best chance to win in Big Ben’s absence but also understand that the reason he looked so good last week was because he was playing a team that spent all week preparing for Mike Vick.  Andy Reid should have the Chiefs prepared for the rookie quarterbac who has the uneviable taks of heading to Arrowhead.  If the Chiefs can’t find a way to win this week, they may no win a game the rest of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans 

Well you knw it was going to happen that at some point the Falcons were going to flirt long enough with dangers in the fourth quarter to not allow Matt Ryan to pull out a comeback for the win and that happen last week at the Superdome.  Honestly, that loss was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Falcons and the worst thing that could have happened to the Titans.  This should light a fire under the Falcons collective asses as they now had 10 days to think about it.  To make matters worse for the Tennessee Titans, they’ll be starting the selfie loving Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.  Forget all this talk about a trap game, Falcons should win this one running away,

LOCK OF THE WEEK: New York Jets (+10) over The New England Patriots

What were you expecting something else.  Call me a homer, call me whatever you want but I’m taking my New York Jets in Foxboro this week.  This should be a tight division game between two teams with one loss between them and this line is just plainly disrespectful.  If you don’t think the Jets and their number one defense smell blood and want to take down the undefeated champs then you got another thing coming.  I won’t say the Jets are going to win but damn it I don’t think that defense will let them get blown out.  I’d understand 7 but 10 really is a slap in the face.  I’ll be rooting for them and maybe this is a heart pick but the Jets are my lock of the week and I haven’t lost one of those yet!

That’s going to do it for me but be sure to give me a follow over on twitter @TommyOnTheSpot which is where I’ve been dong my picks the last few weeks and where I make many announcements on this site.  Also I always welcome your feedback either in the comments section below or via email at thedailyspotlight2@gmail.com, I respond to all questions so send them in.  Until next time, best of luck everyone.