The Spotlight Picks Against The Spread for the NFL Week 7

Top of the morning to you everyone…well I guess really it’s good evening to most of my readers and followers but I’m coming to you live from the United Arab Emirates.  Ever since I met my girlfriend, over 3 years ago, she has been talking about going to Dubai and so this year I finally made it happen.  With Dubai being a solid 8 hours ahead of us New Yorkers, the time change has really been killing us.  We sleep when we can for a few hours here and there but we usually aren’t tired until around 6 or 7 AM and then have trouble getting up any earlier than 3 pm…I say this but it really is only our second night here so hopefully it’ll get better.  In any event, tonight I fell asleep aroun 3 Am only to wake up a few hours later a bit after 5.  After tossing and turning for almost an hour, I threw in the towel and decided to come provide you guys with  the picks you’ve come to depend on each week on

One thing that’s really interesting is that the NFL really isn’t much of an entity at all here in the middle east.  There is much more of an emphasis on Soccer and Rugby (and WWE for that matter but that’s another blog for another day) then the sports we follow in the states.  This is to the point that until moments ago I hadn’t even known the Royals won the pennant and that was only because I flipped over to espn to find the updated NFL injury report.  Now that I do have that report, what a segue way this is, let’s finally get into the reason you’re all here your top NFL picks against the spread.

Now it took until week 6 but we finally did hit double digits in losses on the year when I took two losses with both the Ravens ( who we can officially right off as a bad football team for 2015) and the Arizona Cardinals (who I can’t lie really surprised me in a bad loss last week to a number three quarterback).  Regardless we are still rolling after a 5-2 week 6 bringing our total up to 34-11 on the year.  I’ll be honest being on vacation, I considered taking this week off but my goal is to bring you winners every week and so I’m going to try to do just that yet again.  This is a tough week so proceed with caution but let’s hope Dubai brings us luck.  The picks for Week 7 in the NFL…

Cleveland Browns (+7) over The St. Louis Rams

On a tough week this game immediately jumped right out at me.  The Rams play hard for Jeff Fisher, no doubt, they are usually in ever game right down to the finish and often play up for division games.  But this isn’t a division game…and I can’t recall the last time the the Rams blew anyone out.  On the other side of things you have a Browns team that despite a 2-4 record has played every game close and almost beat the undefeated Broncos last week.  Josh McCown is playing at an elite level and always gives his team a chance.  Remember, I don’t picks underdogs that I think have no shot to win.  Don’t be surprised if the Browns do just that.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over Oakland Raiders

Talk about a team that shouldn’t be 2-4, how about the San Diego Chargers who have lost some real heartbreakers.  Phillip Rivers proved last week that on any given Sunday (great movie), he can compete with any quarterback in the league, even Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, in what was arugably the best game of the 2015 season.  Now the Chargers have the Raiders coming to town with the season on the line and I like their chances.  Only a field goal, roll with it!

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over New York Giants

I was finally starting to believe in the New York Giants last week and then…bad Eli showed up!  Scratch that! Terrible Eli showed up.  Now the Cwobys come to town off their bye and it’s officially the Matt Cassell era in Dallas.  The Cowboys now know that Dez Bryant is probably one more week away and if they can just tread water until then the division is right there for the taking.  Will Matt Cassell fair better than Brandon Weeden?  Well he can’t fair much worse.  When a player has lost that many starts in a row, that losing stigma has to project in his confidence and in his leadership.  Cassell won’t fight Tony Romo for his starting job, but he’ll do enough to hang onto it until he’s ready.  Cowboys will rally around their new QB and may steal one at Metlife.  (Note: This was my final pick of the week. I was prepared to go Bills but they just have too many injuries so the Cowboys were my backup pick, take that for what it’s worth)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over Washington Redskins

In a tough week, a lot of my picks here are being determined by that extra half a point.  The Redskins looked awful last week against the Jets in a game I watched all 60 minutes of.  The Jets are ight years better than the Bucs but the Bucs have some talent, in particular, on the offensive side of the ball.  Coming off their be this gives Mike Evans and Doug Martin a chance to get healthy and Lovie Smith a chance to get Jameis Winston two weeks of preparation.  Kirk Cousins just isn’t the answer at quarterback for the Redskins and if this becomes a close game, I’m going the other way almost every time.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is officially out on Sunday which means that Landry Jones will be in at quarterback and the reason this line is so low is because Landry Jones looked pretty good in a shocking win over the Cardinals last week.  Don’t get me wrong, Landry Jones gives the Steelers the best chance to win in Big Ben’s absence but also understand that the reason he looked so good last week was because he was playing a team that spent all week preparing for Mike Vick.  Andy Reid should have the Chiefs prepared for the rookie quarterbac who has the uneviable taks of heading to Arrowhead.  If the Chiefs can’t find a way to win this week, they may no win a game the rest of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans 

Well you knw it was going to happen that at some point the Falcons were going to flirt long enough with dangers in the fourth quarter to not allow Matt Ryan to pull out a comeback for the win and that happen last week at the Superdome.  Honestly, that loss was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Falcons and the worst thing that could have happened to the Titans.  This should light a fire under the Falcons collective asses as they now had 10 days to think about it.  To make matters worse for the Tennessee Titans, they’ll be starting the selfie loving Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.  Forget all this talk about a trap game, Falcons should win this one running away,

LOCK OF THE WEEK: New York Jets (+10) over The New England Patriots

What were you expecting something else.  Call me a homer, call me whatever you want but I’m taking my New York Jets in Foxboro this week.  This should be a tight division game between two teams with one loss between them and this line is just plainly disrespectful.  If you don’t think the Jets and their number one defense smell blood and want to take down the undefeated champs then you got another thing coming.  I won’t say the Jets are going to win but damn it I don’t think that defense will let them get blown out.  I’d understand 7 but 10 really is a slap in the face.  I’ll be rooting for them and maybe this is a heart pick but the Jets are my lock of the week and I haven’t lost one of those yet!

That’s going to do it for me but be sure to give me a follow over on twitter @TommyOnTheSpot which is where I’ve been dong my picks the last few weeks and where I make many announcements on this site.  Also I always welcome your feedback either in the comments section below or via email at, I respond to all questions so send them in.  Until next time, best of luck everyone.


The Spotlight On The AFC South In 2015

Hello everyone and welcome to opening week in the NFL.  The NFL 2015 season kicks off tomorrow night but before we get there, I thought it might be fun to take a look at each one of the different NFL divisions in depth.  We’ll predict the record of each team, who will be the division winner, who’ll be the division loser and which teams will sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard.  Let’s get right into it by taking a look at the AFC South.

The Division Winner- The Indianapolis Colts (13-3) (#1 Overall Seed In The AFC)

What, were you expecting something else?  Perhaps 13-3  is a bit overzealous but I really like the Colts this year and if you look at their schedule, they may very well start the season 5-0 until their big Deflategate Rematch with the Pats in Indy on October 18th.  I really love what the Colts did to improve an already stellar offensive attack with the additions of both Andre Johnson and Frank Gore.  You add that in with the addition of Trent Cole to lead the defense with Robert Mathis and the Colts should run right through their divsion.  Due to the division being so weak, I think the Colts will ride this all the way to the number one seed in the AFC. The tests for them will be what happens when they make the playoffs, but I’ll get to that on Saturday. 

The Number 2- The Houston Texans ( 8-8)

Wow if you can take the Texans defense and mesh them with the Colts offense, it would be the best team ever assembled.  With the free agent signing of veteran Nose Tackle Vince Wilfork to go along with the returning Jadaveon Clowney and Brian Cushing and the leadership of JJ Watt, the Houston Texans may very well have the best defense in the National Football League.  The question with the Texans is going to be if the defense can score enough points to defeat their opponent.  No offense to Brian Hoyer but he proved last season that he just doesn’t have enough to be a winning quarterback in the league.  Also while the Texans have a rising top wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they are really going to miss Arian Foster at the start of this season.  Had they had Foster, it could have been the difference in some of these tight games to start the year like opening day against the Chiefs or at Carolina week two.  Since they don’t and the plays on offense will fall on the arm of Brian Hoyer, I say they lose those tight games and never fully recover to be in post season contention.

Free Falling- The Jacksonville Jaguars ( 4-12)

I always like a good underdog as much as the next guy but just based on their schedule, do you really see the Jacksonville Jaguars winning more then four games in the 2015 season? First off it’s hard to rebuild when your number one draft pick, Dante Fowler Jr,  blows out his ACL and is already done for the season.  From there, its hard to rebuild a team who led the league in sacks allowed and did not draft a single offensive lineman.  This brings us to the offensive playmakers or lack thereof.  I was never a big fan of the Blake Bortles draft pick but they have to commit to the kid for a few years and see what he has.  I think they have a few decent wide receivers in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson and I’m interested to see what T.J Yeldon does in the backfield but it won’t be enough to turn in a respectable season and may not be enough to extend Gus Bradley’s tenure.  Hey if Bortles really bombs, maybe this could be a landing spot for former Florida Gator…ok I’ll stop.

Bottom of the Barrel- The Tennessee Titans (3-13) 

I just listed a cavalcade of problems for the the Jacksonville Jaguars and I’m still predicting someone will finish worse than them?  In their divsion no less?  Well for the Tennessee Titans, the Marcus Mariota Era is upon us and sadly I think it’s going to start off pretty bad before it has a chance to get good.  I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say that the Titans will be playing in Jacksonville on Novemember 19th for their first win.  The running back trio of Bishop Sanky (remember him? I know I can’t be the only schmuck who picked him as his second fantasy running back only to be searching the waiver wire for whomever was in Cleveland’s backfield from week to week?), Terrence West (one of said Celeveland Backs) and Dexter McCluster makes me shrug, the wide receiving trio of Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter excites me even less and so Mariota’s only weapons really end up being Tight End Delanie Walker and rookie Dorial Green- Beckham (who isn’t even ready) who are not enough.  He’ll show flashes of brilliance but Marcus Mariota will likely face more growing pains.  The good news is the Ken Whisenhunt has the ole Rookie Quarterback excuse to keep his job.

That’s going to do it for my breakdown of the AFC South.  Feel free to let your voice be heard in the comment section below and make sure to hit subscribe as we have you covered from division to division all day long as we get you prepped for opening day tomorrow.