The Spotlight On Today’s Sports

The Spotlight NFL Week 1 Picks Against The Spread

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Last night my girlfriend and I went on a double date with two of our closest friends right here in New York City.  We went to a place called The Loopy Doopy Bar on top of the Conrad Hotel.  This place was fine, it was your typical New York City bar where you agree to pay $20 a drink, moreso for the view, the ambiance and some sort of gimmick (at Loopy Doopy it was the the ice pops they put in the drinks) then the actual drinks themselves.  In any event, there was a couple sitting next to us that I couldn’t help but people watch as they were both pretty loud and obnoxious.  It was obvious that this couple was on one of their first dates as the gentleman seemed to continue putting on a full court press on his female counterpart to get himself a little hibbity dibbity (Chris Jericho, how are ya?).  This guy was doing everything from hugging the girl mid laugh, after a joke, to going for a smooch several times throughout the night and it was clear that he was growing frustrated by the minute.  Eventually, the young lady caved and gave him a little lip service, which he immediately tried to take to the next level, only to fail…  This is when we left so I can’t tell you what happened next, maybe the two took things to the next level, but I have my doubts, it honestly isn’t important, the main point here is that my man came on way too strong.  If things didn’t go well he only had himself to blame for playing things way too hard and if he ended up scoring, where can he really go from here?  He took this lady to one of the nicest places in town on top of one of the nicest hotels in New York City all while the two were still in the feeling out process of their relationship.

The feeling out process is what I consider this week to be for football bettors around the world.  All week long I’ve heard a lot of people talk about how Sam Bradford will be the NFL’s comeback player of the year or how Tyrod Taylor will lead the Bills to the playoffs.  Both of these may be very true but they also both remind me of a team that everyone fell in love with this time last year…the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Even the most respected football guys on the planet, including SI’s Peter King, picked the Bucs to make the playoffs last year and they ended up choosing Jameis Winston with the 1st overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft.  All I’m saying is that week one in the NFL, there are no sure bets because you don’t really know the teams yet.  There is a reason why every betting site on the planet is offering unreal bonuses to sign up this week and that’s because they know that people will likely lose money week one.  Thus, don’t blow your wad entirely this week and proceed with caution.  It’s fine to make the games a little bit more fun (I mean that is why we’re here) but don’t go for the home run too early or you may be left with nothing to play with for the rest of the season. With that being said, let’s get into this week’s top five best bets of the week.  (Caps denotes pick)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears

I hate picking touchdown or more favorites on the road and in a rivalry game, no less, also makes me a bit nervous but I think the Packers just have too much for the Bears to keep up with.  The Bears defense ranked towards the bottom in the whole NFL last season whereas the Green Bay Packers were the NFL’s best overall offense last year.  I expect that John Fox is going to have a positive impact on the Bears but it isn’t going to happen this week.  Say what you will about Brandon Marshall, but he’s always been Jay Cutler’s favorite target and they did little in the way of replacing him, sorry Eddie Royal.  Packers should win this one running away, they’re a veteran group who’s mostly been together for some time and while the loss of Jordy Nelson will be tough, DaVante Adams looks ready to fill in admirably.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over Tennessee Titans

Battle of the rookie quarterbacks tomorrow is one of the cooler matchups of the day but the main difference is that Jameis Winston has many of the weapons on his team that gave everyone reason to pick this team last year.  From all reports Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson are healthy and Mike Evans will be back and is as big of a rising stud at the wide receiver position as anyone.  Marcus Mariota on the other hand has,,,,well, Bishop Sanky. Also in a game of two rookie quarterbacks starting in their first ever career games, how do you not take the one starting at home?  Only a field goal as well.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4) over Washington Redskins

Like I mentioned in my preview on the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins have one of the easiest schedules to start the year and it starts with a trip to Washington.  I’m not a huge believer in the Dolphins but the Redskins make my New York Jets look like a functional organization.  The Kirk Cousins era officially begins for the skins tomorrow and while he has the weapons around him (Jordan Reed, Desean Jackson, Alfred Morris) he has not shown much consistency at the quarterback position.  It almost feels like he’s been named the starter as a way for new head coach Jay Gruden to make a goat out of RG3.  If I’m siding with Ryan Tannehill, you know i have no faith whatsoever in Kirk Cousins. (sorry SCJ)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over Oakland Raiders

In the interest of full disclosure, I should probably point out that one of these three road favorite picks are almost guaranteed to blow up in my face but it’s too tempting not to take the veteran Bengals over the young upstart Raiders by only a field goal.  I know that the trio of Derek Carr, Latavis Murray and Amari Cooper look pretty sexy but they are all still pretty young and inexperienced.  The Bengals may be boring but they are just better at every phase of the game and this is when they are at their best.  In the beginning of every season the Bengals always fool you into thinking that this may be the year their playoff run extends past the first round and this week (opening day) should be no different.  You can have faith in Andy Dalton…for now.

LOCK OF THE WEEK- THE NEW YORK JETS (-3) over The Cleveland Browns

This line really has to be a reflection of the oddsmakers lack of respect for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ability to play quarterback.  This reads like a sucker bet but it almost seems too easy.  While the defenses of both teams may be comparable, the Jets playmakers (Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Chris Ivory) are way better than the players for the Browns (Isaiah Crowell, Dwayne Bowe, Andrew Hawkins).  I also really think that that short run by Josh McCown with the Bears in 2013 was more of an aberration and a team playing as hard as possible for anyone not named Cutler then it was a reflection of McCown’s talent.  The Jets also play well during their home openers and tomorrow should be no exception.  Again, it’s only a field goal and this time it’s for the home team so I’m confident in gang green here.

That’s going to do it for me this week.  Be sure to check out my pick for tomorrow night’s Sunday Night Football game tomorrow as well as Monday Night Football Doubleheader on Monday.  Until then, what are your best bets for the week?  Be sure to let me know it the comment section below, via email at dailyspotlight2@gmail.com or on twitter @TommyOnTheSpot .

The Spotlight On The AFC East in 2015

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Here’s the thing with the AFC East. I do believe that one of the other three teams in the East is going to get into the playoffs as a wildcard and a good argument can probably be made for either one but I’m going to make the case for my team.

The division winner- The New England Patriots (10-6)
Truth be told, had Tom Brady’s suspension been upheld, I think I  would’ve predicted the Pats to get in more as a wildcard. However, with Brady’s suspension overturned, he’s just so far and away the best quarterback in the division and I can’t bet against him. That said, I’m really not liking the Pats defense without Darelle Revis or longtime leader of the defense Vince Wilfork. Brady will also be without longtime safety valve, Shane Vereen, on the offensive side of the ball but I think so long as he has Gronkowski (and newly acquired TE Scott Chandler) he will find a way. One thing to keep an eye on, and part of the reason I’m giving the Pats 6 losses, they finish the season with 3 of the final 4 on the road.  That isn’t ideal even if you are the defending Superbowl champs.

The Wildcard- The New York Jets (10-6)

Go ahead and call me a goober if you must but I’m picking the Jets to sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard.  There was perhaps no team more active over the offseason than the Jets who took care of almost every area of need. Whether it be at wide receiver with the addition of Brandon Marshall, running back with the additions of Zac Stacy & Stevan Ridley and the secondary with the return of both Antonio Cromartie & Darelle Revis, the Jets would seemed primed to make a run under first year head coach Todd Bowles.  So why aren’t they my pick to win the division? What else, the issue of quarterback. First off this idea that Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in as a veteran backup and is in any way shape or form a step back from Geno Smith is ludicrous. Fitzpatrick will never be representing the AFC in the Pro Bowl but is a smart enough quarterback to not blow games for his team which was a problem with Smith. Also, likely because Fitzpatrick was given so much money by the Bills and never lived up to that contract, Fitzpatrick is actually pretty under rated as a passer. Each year he’s improved his quarterback rating since 2011 up to a respectable 95.3 last year.  Last season, he posted a respectable 63% completion percentage and a career best 17-8 TD-INT ratio. This was en route to him leading a Texans team to a respectable 9-7 record while competing for a playoff spot with comparable talent. If the jets can remain around .500 before their bye, the schedule gets a lot easier and I have the Jets winning 10 games and returning to the postseason.

3) Right On The Outskirts- The Miami Dolphins (7-9) 

Looking at the Dolphins schedule you’ll probably be quitck to throw your arms up in the air and call me expletives…provided you only look at the first seven weeks of their schedule.  Seriously, there is an outside chance that the Dolphins will be first place in the AFC East and start the season 6-0.  Then all breaks loose for the Dolphins schedule as they go on the road for three straight weeks to face to Foxboro, Buffalo and Philly.  They should come back to Earth really fast and then they have games remaining against Dallas, the Colts, Giants and Ravens as well as trips to the Jets and the Chargers.  Remember this is isn’t a case where I think the Dolphins are going to be Tennessee Titans awful, I’m sure they’ll be competitive, and something can be said for riding the momentum of a fast start.  They now have Ndamukong Suh & a pretty stout defense to boot. But that’s always the story with the Dolphins. They still have the same quarterback and this time he doesn’t even have Mike Wallace and the Dolphins haven’t done much to replace Wallace. Ryan Tannehill isn’t the type of QB who can make household names out of a Jarvis Landry or Kenny Stills . That said, I also don’t believe in Joe Philbin, even if this is his last shot. 

The Bottom Of The Barrel- The Buffalo Bills (6-10)

A lot of people are picking the Bills and first year coach Rex Ryan to make a run at the postseason. Does this sound familiar a Rex Ryan team with a great defense, a ground and pound attack with a stud running back, a couple of playmakers at wide receiver and no sign of a quarterback whatsoever? Of course it does! At the end of the day it comes down to the fact that the Bills have a collection of unproven quarterbacks. The fact that so many people are picking this Bills team to make the playoffs when opening day starter, Tyrod Taylor has thrown a total of 35 passes in his 4 YEAR NFL career is baffling! Look at their schedule and find me more then six wins, I bet you can’t!

The Spotlight On The AFC North In 2015 

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Ah the AFC North, always one of the toughest divisions in all of football. A division defined by smash mouth in your face football. Id also say that this division was the hardest for me to breakdown because while every team in the division is talented, they also all have their flaws, some more glaring then others. At the end of the day, with such even teams in the division, it’s going to come down to who has the easiest schedule and how these teams play agaisnt each other.  Let’s get into it.

1) The Division Winner- Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

I’m not as high on the Ravens as some people are.  For one, I really don’t think they have enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.  Rookie wide receiver, Bresshard Perriman has barely played in preseason and Steve Smith is at a point in his career, at age 36, where he’s no longer a number one wide receiver.  I’m also not sold on Justin Forsett as a feature back.  That said, the Ravens have an elite quarterback in Joe Flacco, that’s right I said elite, and the benefit of a veteran defense led by Elvis Dumervill and Terrell Suggs that will win them close games.  The main piece that seperates the Ravens from the the other teams in this divison is that their schedule is also leaps and bounds easier then it is for the Steelers and the Bengals.  There is no reason that the Ravens can’t get off to a 9-3 start and then they finish  with three out of the final four games at home.  It’s because of this that the Ravens are my number 2 overall seed in the AFC and they may even make a push for number one.  Again, more because of schedule then anything else.

2) Wildcard Alert- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) 

I actually think, on paper, the Steelers have more talent, on the offensive side of the ball then the Ravens but they may really struggle out of the gate as they will be without their center Maurkice Pouncey, who’s injured, and without running back Le’Veon Bell and wideout Martavis Bryant, who are both suspended for 2 and 4 games each respectively.  Their schedule is also stiff as they have trips to New England, San Diego, Seattle, and Kansas City while hosting both the Colts and the Broncos.  That October 25th trip to KC may actually end up determing the sixth seed in the AFC as the new look Chiefs also have a brutal schedule.  I’ll give the nod to Big Ben and co as they’re simply better at Quarterback and few coaches are as good as Mike Tomlin.

3) Not This Year- Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) 

The talent has always been there for the Bengals as they’ve been one of the few constants in the AFC playoffs since 2010.  They may in fact have the best position player talent in the division, I just don’t like their head coach and I don’t believe in their quarterback.  At some point the team is going to falter and miss the playoffs and I think this is the season.  Their schedule is also brutal as they have trips to Oakland, Baltimore and Buffalo along with home games to the Seahawks and Chiefs and this is all before their bye in week 7.  If they somehow survive that with a .500 record they have trips to Pittsburgh, Arizona and Denver following the bye.  Too much to overcome for the Red Rifle and Company this year.

4) The Bottom Of The Barrel- Cleveland Browns (4-12)

There is actually a small chance that the Browns will start their season by winning 3 of 4 but then things are going to take a downturn quick whether or not Johnny Manziel plays.  With Manziel not starting the season at quarterback the Browns, that means that the Browns have exactly ZERO dynamic players on the offensive side of the ball.  Are you sold on Isaih Crowell?  I’m not!  How about Dwayne Bowe, who led a wide receiving corps for the Kansas City Cheifs last season that didn’t register a single touchdown?  I didn’t think so.  It’s not the team’s fault that Josh Gordon is a knucklehead but if you were hoping the Browns would help that title drought for the city of Cleveland this season…ok, really?  Was anyone thinking this Browns team would help solve the title drought?  If so I got nothing for Ya

That’s going to do it for the AFC North.  I’m taking both the Ravens and the Steelers out of this division to finish with the number 2 and number 6 seeds respectively.  A little bit later on I’ll take a look at the AFC East.  Until then, who do you see coming out of the AFC North this season?

The Spotlight On The AFC South In 2015

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Hello everyone and welcome to opening week in the NFL.  The NFL 2015 season kicks off tomorrow night but before we get there, I thought it might be fun to take a look at each one of the different NFL divisions in depth.  We’ll predict the record of each team, who will be the division winner, who’ll be the division loser and which teams will sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard.  Let’s get right into it by taking a look at the AFC South.

The Division Winner- The Indianapolis Colts (13-3) (#1 Overall Seed In The AFC)

What, were you expecting something else?  Perhaps 13-3  is a bit overzealous but I really like the Colts this year and if you look at their schedule, they may very well start the season 5-0 until their big Deflategate Rematch with the Pats in Indy on October 18th.  I really love what the Colts did to improve an already stellar offensive attack with the additions of both Andre Johnson and Frank Gore.  You add that in with the addition of Trent Cole to lead the defense with Robert Mathis and the Colts should run right through their divsion.  Due to the division being so weak, I think the Colts will ride this all the way to the number one seed in the AFC. The tests for them will be what happens when they make the playoffs, but I’ll get to that on Saturday. 

The Number 2- The Houston Texans ( 8-8)

Wow if you can take the Texans defense and mesh them with the Colts offense, it would be the best team ever assembled.  With the free agent signing of veteran Nose Tackle Vince Wilfork to go along with the returning Jadaveon Clowney and Brian Cushing and the leadership of JJ Watt, the Houston Texans may very well have the best defense in the National Football League.  The question with the Texans is going to be if the defense can score enough points to defeat their opponent.  No offense to Brian Hoyer but he proved last season that he just doesn’t have enough to be a winning quarterback in the league.  Also while the Texans have a rising top wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they are really going to miss Arian Foster at the start of this season.  Had they had Foster, it could have been the difference in some of these tight games to start the year like opening day against the Chiefs or at Carolina week two.  Since they don’t and the plays on offense will fall on the arm of Brian Hoyer, I say they lose those tight games and never fully recover to be in post season contention.

Free Falling- The Jacksonville Jaguars ( 4-12)

I always like a good underdog as much as the next guy but just based on their schedule, do you really see the Jacksonville Jaguars winning more then four games in the 2015 season? First off it’s hard to rebuild when your number one draft pick, Dante Fowler Jr,  blows out his ACL and is already done for the season.  From there, its hard to rebuild a team who led the league in sacks allowed and did not draft a single offensive lineman.  This brings us to the offensive playmakers or lack thereof.  I was never a big fan of the Blake Bortles draft pick but they have to commit to the kid for a few years and see what he has.  I think they have a few decent wide receivers in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson and I’m interested to see what T.J Yeldon does in the backfield but it won’t be enough to turn in a respectable season and may not be enough to extend Gus Bradley’s tenure.  Hey if Bortles really bombs, maybe this could be a landing spot for former Florida Gator…ok I’ll stop.

Bottom of the Barrel- The Tennessee Titans (3-13) 

I just listed a cavalcade of problems for the the Jacksonville Jaguars and I’m still predicting someone will finish worse than them?  In their divsion no less?  Well for the Tennessee Titans, the Marcus Mariota Era is upon us and sadly I think it’s going to start off pretty bad before it has a chance to get good.  I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say that the Titans will be playing in Jacksonville on Novemember 19th for their first win.  The running back trio of Bishop Sanky (remember him? I know I can’t be the only schmuck who picked him as his second fantasy running back only to be searching the waiver wire for whomever was in Cleveland’s backfield from week to week?), Terrence West (one of said Celeveland Backs) and Dexter McCluster makes me shrug, the wide receiving trio of Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter excites me even less and so Mariota’s only weapons really end up being Tight End Delanie Walker and rookie Dorial Green- Beckham (who isn’t even ready) who are not enough.  He’ll show flashes of brilliance but Marcus Mariota will likely face more growing pains.  The good news is the Ken Whisenhunt has the ole Rookie Quarterback excuse to keep his job.

That’s going to do it for my breakdown of the AFC South.  Feel free to let your voice be heard in the comment section below and make sure to hit subscribe as we have you covered from division to division all day long as we get you prepped for opening day tomorrow.

The Spotlight On The Last 48 hours for the New York Mets

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I’d like to start off by mentioning that I like the New York Mets.  I’ve never been a fan per say of the Mets, being raised a Yankees fan and then adoptiong the Nationals as my new team in 2009, I actually had every reason to dislike them but I’ve just never been able to root against them.  I’ve always rooted for them to do well and fondly remember going to the Mets pepsi picnic area on Wednesdays in exchange for Pepsi can, in 2006 I remember setting up a small television as the register I worked at while working at a local grocery to watch game seven of the NLCS, and in 2008 I interned for the Mets and have kept a strong working relationship with the Mets ever since.  My respect for the team makes a bit more sense when you consider that my favorite football team is the often times pathetic New York Jets and my favorite basketball team is the often disappointing, New York Knicks, so of course I have a soft sport for the underdog Mets.

Now  that I’ve gotten my respect for the organization out of the way, I’m going to put this as bluntly as possible…These last 48 hours for a Mets fan have had to be some of the most frustrating that any fanbase has had to endure in quite some time.  Now it would be silly for me to talk about my thoughts on all of the matters with the Mets over the last 48 hours because like I said I’m not really a Met fan.  Thankfully though, I have really good friends who are Mets fans, like my buddy Bryan.  Bryan isn’t only a friend but he’s also a talented writer for http://metsinaround.com/ .  Despite, again being a Nationals fan, I gladly subscirbe to Bryan’s site and think he does a great job covering the team from a die hard fan’s perspective.  Thus, without any further ado, let me take you through the last 48 hours through a Mets fans eyes, recalling phone conversations and texts I had with Bryan throughout this time period.

7/28/2015 5:00PM- Bryan called me on the way home from work to talk about the Mets recent trade for Tyler Clippard.  He seemed pretty ecstatic and mentioned how the Mets were now set with a bullpen consisting of four closers, Bobby Parnell, Jenrry Mejia, the newly acquired Clippard and the breakout current closer Jeurys Familia, now a part of the team.  I couldn’t help but agree with Bryan…the Mets looked like they were finally going for it, but I had to be the bearer of bad news as I quickly voiced my displeasure with Mejia.  I explained how it really didn’t have to work out so well for the Mets since Mejia, the team’s opening day closer, really let down his teammates by taking PEDS, missing half of the season in the process and is now ineligible for the postseason.  Bryan, often a Mets apologist, as any true die hard fan is, was quick to say that everyone makes mistakes, stating that perhaps he really didn’t know what he was putting into his body.

7/28/2015 6:30PM– I received a text from Bryan that said “MEJIA!!!!!”.  I immeidately sprang up as quick as I could and jumped on twitter assuming that the Mets had done a smart move in shipping Mejia to a team who has no chance this year now that they already got Clippard, instead I saw this…

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/626156278151290880%20

That’s right Jenrry Mejia had been suspended a second time, for the same exact performance enhancing drugs that he used the first time.  It’s time that the Mets cut Mr Mejia as quick as possible, you just can’t unteach stupid.

7/29/2015 8:00PM  A new day and new possibilities, the Mets fell behind early as 103 year old Bartolo Colon continued to fall apart, but it didn’t matter to Bryan who texted me this….”The Mets just got Carlos Gomez for Zach Wheeler and Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares wasn’t even included in the deal….I think I just busted in my pants!”. Though I hoped Bryan didn’t really have to ask his wife to get him a new pair of pants, I couldn’t blame him for being excited, not at all.  The Mets have always been known for their frugality and now it appeared that they were finally going all in as they just acquired a legit all star center fielder.  For the next two hours, Bryan and I went back and forth over the possibilities for Gomez in the Mets lineup and how much he would help the team.  Yet, as the game went on something strange happened as Wilmer Flores, remained in the game.  Bryan was quick to point out that with the Mets luck, Flores would end up getting hurt and ruing the deal.  It turned out that over the course of three innings, while revewing game tape, Flores saw the report that he had been traded and proceeded to have quite the difficult time with the news.

I’ll admit, I felt awful for the kid, who has been with the Mets since he was just 16 years old, watching him openly weep on the field as Terry Collins left him in the game for only reasons he knows (hindsight being what it is, even if Terry Collins didn’t know about the deal, the Mets were down 7-1 in the game, would it have killed him to pull his distraught shortshop with Ruben Tejada on the bench?).

7/29/2015 10:30PM- ” No deal apparently the Mets weren’t happy with Carlos Gomez’s medical results…only this team!” That text from, a now frustrated, Bryan said it all, after all of that craziness, the deal for Carlos Gomez was apparently off.  It was back to the drawing board for the Mets.  No all star center fielder and now they had a shortstop in Wilmer Flores on the tea who just spent the last two hours crying his eyes out over his team not wanting him.  Onlythe mets indeed.!

7/30/2015 !2:00-3:00PM-  Bryan and I spent portions of the afternoon texting one another about both the Mets and Nationals games going on simultaneously.  It appeared the Mets had their game under control as Jon Niese was cruising.  With 2 outs in the top of the 9th, there was a rain delay and the Mets were now up 7-5 with Jeurys Familia on the mound.

7/30/2015 3:30PM- “Why didn’t you tell me the Mets gave up the lead?”  Bryan texted this to me after seeing that Familia had somehow blown the lead and the Mets were suddenly trailing 8-7.  The answer was because I figured the poor guy needed a break, the Mets had probably caused Bryan enough Angina over the last two days that I didn’t want to add salt to the wounds so I kept the news to myself.  The Mets went on to lose the game, blowing their first 6 run lead at home since 1970!

7/30/2015 5:00PM-  Exactly 48 hours after all of this downward spiral happened for the Mets, a team who had looked to be really turning a corner for their desperate fans, I received one last text from Bryan.  The text read: “Astros just traded for Carlos Gomez, I guess his medical records were good enough for them.” It seems the Mets were back to their frugal ways after all and money was at the root of the Gomez no trade debacle.

So yes that was a 48 hour period that no fan base should ever have to endure. If there is a bit of a silver lining for Mets fans, it’s this: the trade deadline still hasn’t happened. The Mets can still go out and add that much needed bat before 3 pm today. While Gomez is off the board and he would have been great, the Mets can still go for a guy like a Justin Upton or a Jay Bruce. The other bit of good news is that, even though today’s loss was one of the worst losses ever, the Mets are still just three games out of the NL East lead behind my Washington Nationals. Even better news? The Nats are on their way to New York for a three game series at Citi Field this weekend! Thus, after a horrendous 48 hours of being a Mets fan, the next 72 may see the Mets get their big bat they’ve been craving and end up tied for first in the NL East. As the old saying goes, that’s baseball Suzyn!