NFL

The Spotlight Picks Against The Spread- Thursday Night Football- Broncos At Chiefs

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Week 2 in the NFL season will kick off in a bit over an hour with a clash of AFC West teams as Peyton Manning will lead the Denver Broncos into Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

This reads like a tale of two teams who fans feel completely different about this season.  Everywhere you look you see people jumping on the Chiefs bandwagon.  It seems like the only thing that Andy Reid’s team was missing last season was a wide receiver.  They have an elite running back in Jamaal Charles, a quarterback who has won in the playoffs, a rising tight end in Travis Kelce and a stud defense.  Well enter Jeremy Maclin and the Chiefs came out firing in Houston with seemingly all pieces in place.

On the other side of the dime you have the Denver Broncos, the four time division champions are seemingly finished accoridngly to the public.  Peyton Manning hasn’t looked good since last season and last week he averaged under 5 yards per pass.  Denver also got destroyed in the process…what’s that?  Denver won last week?  They beat the Baltimore Ravens?!?! You’d never that the Denver Broncos are currently 1-0 based on everything you’ve heard all week.

So what do we do tonight?   I’ll admit it, I cringe every time I see Peyton Manning go down and go down hard. It’s hard to watch knowing his injuries and, let’s face it, his age.  The Chiefs will be coming at him all night long but this year it’s a different Denver Bronco team.  After three years of the Broncos being carried by Peyton Manning, he is now being carried by them.  The Broncos have a great defense and have a good running game now that the Montee Ball experience is over.  I know Arrowhead will be loud tonight and I know the Chiefs are the consensus pick but I’m not willing to give up on Peyton Manning just yet.  This game reads more like a pickem and if I’m getting points with Peyton Manning I’ll take them gladly.

The Pick:  Broncos (+3, if you can wait it should drop to +3.5,  though don’t be too surprised if the Broncos win outright) 

The Spotlight On The AFC East in 2015

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Here’s the thing with the AFC East. I do believe that one of the other three teams in the East is going to get into the playoffs as a wildcard and a good argument can probably be made for either one but I’m going to make the case for my team.

The division winner- The New England Patriots (10-6)
Truth be told, had Tom Brady’s suspension been upheld, I think I  would’ve predicted the Pats to get in more as a wildcard. However, with Brady’s suspension overturned, he’s just so far and away the best quarterback in the division and I can’t bet against him. That said, I’m really not liking the Pats defense without Darelle Revis or longtime leader of the defense Vince Wilfork. Brady will also be without longtime safety valve, Shane Vereen, on the offensive side of the ball but I think so long as he has Gronkowski (and newly acquired TE Scott Chandler) he will find a way. One thing to keep an eye on, and part of the reason I’m giving the Pats 6 losses, they finish the season with 3 of the final 4 on the road.  That isn’t ideal even if you are the defending Superbowl champs.

The Wildcard- The New York Jets (10-6)

Go ahead and call me a goober if you must but I’m picking the Jets to sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard.  There was perhaps no team more active over the offseason than the Jets who took care of almost every area of need. Whether it be at wide receiver with the addition of Brandon Marshall, running back with the additions of Zac Stacy & Stevan Ridley and the secondary with the return of both Antonio Cromartie & Darelle Revis, the Jets would seemed primed to make a run under first year head coach Todd Bowles.  So why aren’t they my pick to win the division? What else, the issue of quarterback. First off this idea that Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought in as a veteran backup and is in any way shape or form a step back from Geno Smith is ludicrous. Fitzpatrick will never be representing the AFC in the Pro Bowl but is a smart enough quarterback to not blow games for his team which was a problem with Smith. Also, likely because Fitzpatrick was given so much money by the Bills and never lived up to that contract, Fitzpatrick is actually pretty under rated as a passer. Each year he’s improved his quarterback rating since 2011 up to a respectable 95.3 last year.  Last season, he posted a respectable 63% completion percentage and a career best 17-8 TD-INT ratio. This was en route to him leading a Texans team to a respectable 9-7 record while competing for a playoff spot with comparable talent. If the jets can remain around .500 before their bye, the schedule gets a lot easier and I have the Jets winning 10 games and returning to the postseason.

3) Right On The Outskirts- The Miami Dolphins (7-9) 

Looking at the Dolphins schedule you’ll probably be quitck to throw your arms up in the air and call me expletives…provided you only look at the first seven weeks of their schedule.  Seriously, there is an outside chance that the Dolphins will be first place in the AFC East and start the season 6-0.  Then all breaks loose for the Dolphins schedule as they go on the road for three straight weeks to face to Foxboro, Buffalo and Philly.  They should come back to Earth really fast and then they have games remaining against Dallas, the Colts, Giants and Ravens as well as trips to the Jets and the Chargers.  Remember this is isn’t a case where I think the Dolphins are going to be Tennessee Titans awful, I’m sure they’ll be competitive, and something can be said for riding the momentum of a fast start.  They now have Ndamukong Suh & a pretty stout defense to boot. But that’s always the story with the Dolphins. They still have the same quarterback and this time he doesn’t even have Mike Wallace and the Dolphins haven’t done much to replace Wallace. Ryan Tannehill isn’t the type of QB who can make household names out of a Jarvis Landry or Kenny Stills . That said, I also don’t believe in Joe Philbin, even if this is his last shot. 

The Bottom Of The Barrel- The Buffalo Bills (6-10)

A lot of people are picking the Bills and first year coach Rex Ryan to make a run at the postseason. Does this sound familiar a Rex Ryan team with a great defense, a ground and pound attack with a stud running back, a couple of playmakers at wide receiver and no sign of a quarterback whatsoever? Of course it does! At the end of the day it comes down to the fact that the Bills have a collection of unproven quarterbacks. The fact that so many people are picking this Bills team to make the playoffs when opening day starter, Tyrod Taylor has thrown a total of 35 passes in his 4 YEAR NFL career is baffling! Look at their schedule and find me more then six wins, I bet you can’t!

The Spotlight On The AFC North In 2015 

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Ah the AFC North, always one of the toughest divisions in all of football. A division defined by smash mouth in your face football. Id also say that this division was the hardest for me to breakdown because while every team in the division is talented, they also all have their flaws, some more glaring then others. At the end of the day, with such even teams in the division, it’s going to come down to who has the easiest schedule and how these teams play agaisnt each other.  Let’s get into it.

1) The Division Winner- Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

I’m not as high on the Ravens as some people are.  For one, I really don’t think they have enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.  Rookie wide receiver, Bresshard Perriman has barely played in preseason and Steve Smith is at a point in his career, at age 36, where he’s no longer a number one wide receiver.  I’m also not sold on Justin Forsett as a feature back.  That said, the Ravens have an elite quarterback in Joe Flacco, that’s right I said elite, and the benefit of a veteran defense led by Elvis Dumervill and Terrell Suggs that will win them close games.  The main piece that seperates the Ravens from the the other teams in this divison is that their schedule is also leaps and bounds easier then it is for the Steelers and the Bengals.  There is no reason that the Ravens can’t get off to a 9-3 start and then they finish  with three out of the final four games at home.  It’s because of this that the Ravens are my number 2 overall seed in the AFC and they may even make a push for number one.  Again, more because of schedule then anything else.

2) Wildcard Alert- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) 

I actually think, on paper, the Steelers have more talent, on the offensive side of the ball then the Ravens but they may really struggle out of the gate as they will be without their center Maurkice Pouncey, who’s injured, and without running back Le’Veon Bell and wideout Martavis Bryant, who are both suspended for 2 and 4 games each respectively.  Their schedule is also stiff as they have trips to New England, San Diego, Seattle, and Kansas City while hosting both the Colts and the Broncos.  That October 25th trip to KC may actually end up determing the sixth seed in the AFC as the new look Chiefs also have a brutal schedule.  I’ll give the nod to Big Ben and co as they’re simply better at Quarterback and few coaches are as good as Mike Tomlin.

3) Not This Year- Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) 

The talent has always been there for the Bengals as they’ve been one of the few constants in the AFC playoffs since 2010.  They may in fact have the best position player talent in the division, I just don’t like their head coach and I don’t believe in their quarterback.  At some point the team is going to falter and miss the playoffs and I think this is the season.  Their schedule is also brutal as they have trips to Oakland, Baltimore and Buffalo along with home games to the Seahawks and Chiefs and this is all before their bye in week 7.  If they somehow survive that with a .500 record they have trips to Pittsburgh, Arizona and Denver following the bye.  Too much to overcome for the Red Rifle and Company this year.

4) The Bottom Of The Barrel- Cleveland Browns (4-12)

There is actually a small chance that the Browns will start their season by winning 3 of 4 but then things are going to take a downturn quick whether or not Johnny Manziel plays.  With Manziel not starting the season at quarterback the Browns, that means that the Browns have exactly ZERO dynamic players on the offensive side of the ball.  Are you sold on Isaih Crowell?  I’m not!  How about Dwayne Bowe, who led a wide receiving corps for the Kansas City Cheifs last season that didn’t register a single touchdown?  I didn’t think so.  It’s not the team’s fault that Josh Gordon is a knucklehead but if you were hoping the Browns would help that title drought for the city of Cleveland this season…ok, really?  Was anyone thinking this Browns team would help solve the title drought?  If so I got nothing for Ya

That’s going to do it for the AFC North.  I’m taking both the Ravens and the Steelers out of this division to finish with the number 2 and number 6 seeds respectively.  A little bit later on I’ll take a look at the AFC East.  Until then, who do you see coming out of the AFC North this season?

The Spotlight On The AFC South In 2015

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Hello everyone and welcome to opening week in the NFL.  The NFL 2015 season kicks off tomorrow night but before we get there, I thought it might be fun to take a look at each one of the different NFL divisions in depth.  We’ll predict the record of each team, who will be the division winner, who’ll be the division loser and which teams will sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard.  Let’s get right into it by taking a look at the AFC South.

The Division Winner- The Indianapolis Colts (13-3) (#1 Overall Seed In The AFC)

What, were you expecting something else?  Perhaps 13-3  is a bit overzealous but I really like the Colts this year and if you look at their schedule, they may very well start the season 5-0 until their big Deflategate Rematch with the Pats in Indy on October 18th.  I really love what the Colts did to improve an already stellar offensive attack with the additions of both Andre Johnson and Frank Gore.  You add that in with the addition of Trent Cole to lead the defense with Robert Mathis and the Colts should run right through their divsion.  Due to the division being so weak, I think the Colts will ride this all the way to the number one seed in the AFC. The tests for them will be what happens when they make the playoffs, but I’ll get to that on Saturday. 

The Number 2- The Houston Texans ( 8-8)

Wow if you can take the Texans defense and mesh them with the Colts offense, it would be the best team ever assembled.  With the free agent signing of veteran Nose Tackle Vince Wilfork to go along with the returning Jadaveon Clowney and Brian Cushing and the leadership of JJ Watt, the Houston Texans may very well have the best defense in the National Football League.  The question with the Texans is going to be if the defense can score enough points to defeat their opponent.  No offense to Brian Hoyer but he proved last season that he just doesn’t have enough to be a winning quarterback in the league.  Also while the Texans have a rising top wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they are really going to miss Arian Foster at the start of this season.  Had they had Foster, it could have been the difference in some of these tight games to start the year like opening day against the Chiefs or at Carolina week two.  Since they don’t and the plays on offense will fall on the arm of Brian Hoyer, I say they lose those tight games and never fully recover to be in post season contention.

Free Falling- The Jacksonville Jaguars ( 4-12)

I always like a good underdog as much as the next guy but just based on their schedule, do you really see the Jacksonville Jaguars winning more then four games in the 2015 season? First off it’s hard to rebuild when your number one draft pick, Dante Fowler Jr,  blows out his ACL and is already done for the season.  From there, its hard to rebuild a team who led the league in sacks allowed and did not draft a single offensive lineman.  This brings us to the offensive playmakers or lack thereof.  I was never a big fan of the Blake Bortles draft pick but they have to commit to the kid for a few years and see what he has.  I think they have a few decent wide receivers in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson and I’m interested to see what T.J Yeldon does in the backfield but it won’t be enough to turn in a respectable season and may not be enough to extend Gus Bradley’s tenure.  Hey if Bortles really bombs, maybe this could be a landing spot for former Florida Gator…ok I’ll stop.

Bottom of the Barrel- The Tennessee Titans (3-13) 

I just listed a cavalcade of problems for the the Jacksonville Jaguars and I’m still predicting someone will finish worse than them?  In their divsion no less?  Well for the Tennessee Titans, the Marcus Mariota Era is upon us and sadly I think it’s going to start off pretty bad before it has a chance to get good.  I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say that the Titans will be playing in Jacksonville on Novemember 19th for their first win.  The running back trio of Bishop Sanky (remember him? I know I can’t be the only schmuck who picked him as his second fantasy running back only to be searching the waiver wire for whomever was in Cleveland’s backfield from week to week?), Terrence West (one of said Celeveland Backs) and Dexter McCluster makes me shrug, the wide receiving trio of Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter excites me even less and so Mariota’s only weapons really end up being Tight End Delanie Walker and rookie Dorial Green- Beckham (who isn’t even ready) who are not enough.  He’ll show flashes of brilliance but Marcus Mariota will likely face more growing pains.  The good news is the Ken Whisenhunt has the ole Rookie Quarterback excuse to keep his job.

That’s going to do it for my breakdown of the AFC South.  Feel free to let your voice be heard in the comment section below and make sure to hit subscribe as we have you covered from division to division all day long as we get you prepped for opening day tomorrow.